More on Moore

In all likelihood, everyone is familiar with Moore's Law, even if they don't
know it by that name. The number of transistors that can be placed
inexpensively on an integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years.
Technically, originally it was calculated as "every year" and then refined to
"every two years". The "every 18 months" prediction was actually due to David House, an Intel executive, who predicted that period for a doubling in chip performance. The law is named after Intel co-founder Gordon E. Moore, who described the trend in his 1965 paper which noted the number of components in integrated circuits had doubled every year from the invention of the integrated circuit in 1958 until 1965. He predicted that the trend would continue "for at least tem years".

So, there's a new spin on Moore's Law. In the last edition of the IEEE's Annals of the History of Computing , there is a paper by researcher Jon Koomey that found that there is a rough equivalent to Moore's Law when it comes to energy and computers. In his abstract titled "Implications of Historical Trends in the Electrical Efficiency of Computing" (IEEE Annals of the History of Computing Volume 33, Number 3, July-September 2011), he stated "The electrical efficiency of computation has doubled roughly every year and a half for more than six decades."

Looking as far back as the 1940s, the research found that over time, computers did more work per energy input, with the number of computations per kilowatt-hour doubling about every year and a half. Koomey thinks this trend opens various possibilities. Sensors on a bridge could monitor the structure for potential damage and alert transportation officials when maintenance could be required. Lighting sensors could provide just the right amount of light needed based on occupation levels and daylight levels.

It's worth noting that even with the increase of computing efficiency over time, the total amount of energy used by computers is on the rise. For example, electricity use from data centers grew 36% in the US from 2005 to 2010. Still, with cell phones becoming more and more power hungry (running more apps, doing more things instead of just calls and texting) this news bodes well for cell phone technology and may carry over to electric cars. Time will tell. We'll just have to wait and see if there is Moore energy efficiency advancement in the future.